Getting it partly right

Ray Ratto has chimed in with his take on the Commonwealth Club speech/Q&A. He shared the same puzzlement I wrote about earlier regarding the Wolff's current bargaining position (there isn't much of one).

He then went on to bring up CEQA, the statute that requires a thorough environmental review before major projects can be built in California. As a developer, Wolff was expected to fire off a couple of shots at the law. After a while it only becomes so much noise. All any developer can do is put together a plan that they hope will satisfy CEQA guidelines while also making a buck in the process. Since those two goals are often diametrically opposed, getting that done is quite a balancing act. While CEQA may be daunting or even hostile to developers, it's CEQA that's allowed us regular citizens to enjoy unspoiled beaches, preserved hillsides, and many other uniquely Californian natural attractions that we often take for granted.

There are a couple of things we all should know about CEQA of which I'm sure Wolff is all too familiar:

• CEQA ain't going away. As this state grows to over 50 million residents, CEQA will become even more important.
• Whatever gets submitted will look different 18 months later. Thanks to the exhaustive and seemingly repetitive review process, there will be plenty of opportunities to pick the whole plan part and make changes. The bigger the project, the more likely changes will occur. You only need to look at the EIR/EIS documents for the High Speed Rail and BART-to-San Jose projects to get a feel for it. Changes can be caused by environmental factors, budget constraints, market conditions, or other variables.
  

Knowing that change is inevitable, IMHO it would be best to simply submit whatever they have to Fremont and let the two parties crank away. Which brings me to an error in Ratto's column:

In short, Wolff now is feeling the first real squeeze of his grand plan - the inertia that comes from civic hesitation.

It's not "civic hesitation" that's the problem here. The city is champing at the bit! The problem is Wolff and his team. Maybe the whip is getting cracked extra hard on the consultants, or whatever deliverables they were going to put together are woefully behind schedule. Whatever the case, the City of Fremont is entirely blameless. In fact, they've been clear from the beginning in their "cautious optimism" stance that they want to work with the A's to get the best plan available. Now it helps that the A's put in the $500k dev fee, but time is also money for all concerned.

My advice: Just submit the application already. Everyone will get past this FUD stage and start debating the true merits and problems with the plan, instead of all of this idle speculation. Sadly, one thing that's getting lost in this is the A's have already made some major concessions regarding the school site and parking that weren't in the original concept. Often such concessions don't get made until after the CEQA review begins. Oh well.

---

ESPN's Mark Kreidler also wrote about the supposedly difficult relationship between the Coliseum and the A's ever since they moved in. For some reason he forgot the salad days of the late 80's, when the Coliseum was a premier baseball venue and hosted premier teams. Now, to put that in perspective, we're talking about correlating that era to about 1/7th or 1/8th of the time the A's have been in Oakland. That may not sound like much, but it's a testament to how, from a baseball standpoint, the Coliseum has stood still while just about everyone else has upgraded their digs.

---

We'll see something more substantive next Tuesday (10/30), when another study session is scheduled to occur. Update: I received word that there is no study session scheduled, as it's dependent on submission of the development application.

Fremont or Bust

Well, at least Lew Wolff isn't entertaining the concept of a local bidding war. In what has the most definitive statement to date, Wolff reaffirmed the idea that Fremont is Plan A, there is no Plan B, and Oakland is out of the picture. Wolff's quote from Carolyn Jones' Chronicle article:

"We don't want to move. We don't want to start pitting cities against each other, but it's out of the question we'll stay in Oakland," he said after a speech at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco.

Those who have been following this for a while know that this is no fundamental change in Wolff's stance since the Cisco Field plan was unveiled. Fremont was really the only plan in place. This time, Wolff added what amounts to a complete dismissal of Oakland as a possibility.

As the A's close their 40th year at the Coliseum, it seems a certainty that the team will not see their 50th year there. I suppose there's some strategic value in Wolff sending the message so bluntly, but I have to question it. What's to be gained by going this route? It won't make Fremont officials move faster. It won't move the needle on regional support. And it definitely won't win over any die-hard Oakland-firsters.

As I write this, an old USFL game between the Pittsburgh Maulers and the New Jersey Generals is playing on ESPN Classic. Like the USFL and the Oakland Invaders, the "Oakland Athletics" will soon become a thing of the past.

Your Athletics Crystal Ball

We've discussed at great length the where and how of the ballpark project. I've also covered "why" from the perspective of deficiencies at the Coliseum. The main point, which I haven't covered in significant depth, is money. Ownership stands to make a boatloads of cash from this deal while taking on a good deal of risk in the process. The purpose of this post is to provide a basic understanding how much more money they could make over the current situation. Take a look at the tables and when you're ready drop a comment.

Disclaimer: Most of the numbers discussed here are based on various media-reported estimates of revenues and costs. They should not be considered anything resembling a thorough accounting of the A's operations. Estimates take into account rules described in the current CBA.

In an effort to further this discussion, I've taken the time to dissect the revenue sharing model, A's-style. But first some explanations:

• Concessions numbers don't match ticket sales because concessions sales are based on turnstile count, which runs at about 80% of ticket sales (you can't sell concessions to no-shows).
• Parking sales numbers are based on 8,000 spaces sold per game over 82 games. This may be generous given actual parking lot usage at the Coliseum.
• Non-game events include tours and other activities outside of game days.
• In-stadium advertising, sponsorships, and broadcast revenues are placeholders for the purpose of fleshing out the model. So are the items listed in "Actual Stadium Expenses."
  
• It is not assumed that the new stadium will immediately benefit the A's in terms of more lucrative local broadcasting deals.
  
• Revenue sharing contribution is defined as 31% of Net Local Revenue. All teams pay in this percentage, plus luxury tax if applicable.
• "Recovered debt service from dev rights sales" is the "refund" the A's will get from selling development rights to ~310 housing units per year. It's this amount that is intended to finance the ballpark debt. That boils down to a $300 million loan, financed at $31 million per year over 15 years. The final loan structure is likely to vary greatly from this.
  
• "Revenue Sharing Receipt" is the share of the revenue sharing pool the A's get.
• "Central Revenue" is national and international revenue taken in by MLB. This includes national broadcast contracts from FOX, ESPN, and TBS, plus merchandising sources.
  

And now for the details. Below is the A's current revenue/expense model:

A combination of low operations costs and revenue sharing make the A's a reasonably profitable franchise. That $140 million figure looks tantalizingly large, but don't be mislead. Lew Wolff has held close to a "guideline" that dictates teams should spend no more than 55% of revenue on payroll, as is done throughout pro sports. Using the 55% rule the A's payroll should be around $83 million, which is pretty close to this season's actual payroll. Before we move on, remember the amount of the "Revenue sharing contribution."

(estimates not adjusted for inflation)
In this model, A's revenue has risen $25 million. Yet the "Revenue sharing contribution" is almost the same as in the current model. How can this be? The "Actual Stadium Expenses" table totals a whopping $52 million, thanks to stadium debt service and operating costs, which are all deductible from the amount used to determine the contribution. Consider it similar to your annual 1040 form's "Adjusted Gross Income." The A's would service the stadium debt with sales of housing development rights, not stadium income. That would allow the A's to reclaim all of that debt service and put it towards the team - or ownership partners. Notice that even in this instance the A's would be receiving some form of revenue sharing receipt. This is because the A's new revenue streams from the stadium would still place them slightly below the league-wide revenue average, squarely in mid-market territory. This number is smaller because it's expected that most if not all teams that still are developing ballparks will have theirs open around the same time Cisco Field opens. New stadia for the Yanks, Mets, and ongoing improvements to Dodger Stadium and Fenway Park allow the big market teams to take the same deductions, limiting the amounts they pay into revenue sharing.

Apply the 55% rule to the future revenue model and the payroll grows to $97 million. Is that enough to remain competitive? In spurts. A fantastic diary posted by Taj Adib at Athletics Nation goes in depth on future iterations of the A's. $97 million isn't enough for anyone to turn into Brian Cashman. It is enough to invest in more than one franchise-type player while maintaining a young, cheap core of players. The franchise-player investments have inherently high risk, and if those players come through with career years while your young core stays healthy and produces, you might end up like this year's Rockies or Indians. Gamble and lose, and you get this year's Orioles or Rangers. 6 or 7-year deals are not easy to trade if a player seriously underperforms, so GM's won't have frequent chances to roll the dice. What we could see in the future might be shorter and more frequent rebuilding cycles for the mid-market teams. What we don't want to see is a situation like the NBA, where GM's are forced to trade bad contracts instead of trading players based on exchanges of talent. (It's an ugly system, though for a number-cruncher like me it's strangely fascinating.) Thanks to the number of roster spots per team, MLB's salary/trade model is somewhere between the dog-eat-dog tendencies of the NFL and the egregious excesses of the NBA. And that's a good thing.

NY Times article

A NY Times article (reporter Dan Reed) about Cisco Field has the rather sensationalistic headline, "Oakland's Dream Stadium, or Traffic Nightmare?"

The article only briefly mentions the traffic problem and gets a quote from long-time fan Erin Hallissy, who I assume lives in Contra Costa County:

“For the loyal fans who live east of Oakland,” said Hallissy, who edits the alumni magazine at Saint Mary’s College, “it would just be too far to go to a game, especially on a workday when we’d be stuck with all the commuter traffic fighting their way home.”

Unfortunately, I saw this article at 7:00 p.m., at the tail end of evening rush hour, which was a bit messy thanks to a light shower and the astounding inability of many Californians to drive in inclement weather. Nevertheless, I immediately went to 511.org and took a snapshot of the traffic map. I queried the drive time from Lafayette to Fremont (Mission Blvd. South/680), which is a bit past the Auto Mall/Durham exit that would lead fans coming from 680 to Cisco Field. Here's what I plotted (click image for bigger version):

35 minutes. The blue line indicates the route. As I've said before, southbound 680 in the evening is often not the nightmare many make it out to be. Much of the ballpark traffic will run opposite commute traffic, plus it will be distributed among 4 separate freeway segments plus some larger area thoroughfares.

But who am I to argue? A spicy headline beats dry analysis for reader attention any day of the week.

The tortoise phase

Fremont officials have been grumbling louder in recent weeks about the A's delays in getting the development application in. FWIW I'm glad. They've expressed this frustration to any media person who asks - including me. I don't know if it will get the app in more quickly, but it can't hurt to put feet to the fire. Both the City and the A's have remained professional and cordial throughout.

In today's East Bay Business Times article by David Goll, Lew Wolff admits that the team's in "the tortoise phase":

Wolff himself admits he's in "the tortoise phase" of his plan, anticipating up to 18 months for the city's planning and review process to unfold once he submits a formal proposal. He also foresees spending $20 million to $30 million for a detailed design for the entire development and, assuming the Fremont City Council gives his plans a green light, about two years for construction of the stadium.

Fremont's economic development director Daren Fields gave his opinion on when he thinks the ballpark could open: 2012. I think it can still happen in 2011, but if the application isn't submitted in the next few weeks an April 2011 opening date could certainly be in jeopardy.

Two new sites

Last week two new websites came online for those interested in A's new ballpark news. First up is the A's to Fremont Support Group. Currently the only page is a mailing list signup form for interested parties, but this is sure to expand fairly quickly. I am not involved with this particular site as I was with the dormant "Bring the A's to Fremont" site. That also is subject to change. For now I am replacing the dormant site with the new one on the sidebar.

Next up is MLB's Ballparks of the Future site, presented by Cisco. It has a video showing Cisco's vision of the future plus videos for all five in-development ballparks as well as additional galleries for other new and to-be-renovated venues. Check out the Nationals' stadium tour video to get a glimpse of how crazy the premium seating market has become.

This town ain't big enough for the both of us

In today's press release, Cedar Fair has thrown down the gauntlet. The theme park operator "believes that the traffic, parking and other operational problems that would be created by putting the stadium in the middle of Great America’s main parking area are insurmountable and would place the continued operation of the park at risk."

After making this assessment, Cedar Fair offered to sell the park (remember they don't own the land, they have a lease through 2039) to the city/49ers so that the 49ers could do what they wanted with it. Talk about hardball, read the stance for yourself:

Cedar Fair has analyzed information provided by the 49ers themselves regarding parking, usage dates, project footprint, and traffic flow. While other parties can weigh in on the fiscal and environmental risks that building a new stadium would bring to the residents of Santa Clara, we oppose the stadium as proposed for three basic reasons specific to the interests of Great America’s guests:

1. Unacceptable parking limitations for Great America visitors.
2. Increased congestion for Great America visitors.
3. Irreconcilable limits on Great America improvement plans.

When Cedar Fair concluded that an amusement park and the stadium as proposed could not successfully coexist, Cedar Fair offered the City and the 49ers the option of redeveloping the entire parcel. The next step will be for the citizens and the City of Santa Clara to decide: should the Great America site be used for a new 49ers’ stadium or should the park continue to operate? If the City and its citizens believe that the best use of this property is for a new stadium, then Cedar Fair is willing to consider selling the remainder of its lease and all of its interest and assets to the City or 49ers for fair market value.

So it's Great America vs. the 49ers. Reading between the lines, it appears Cedar would prefer that Santa Clara citizens choose between the two. If/when an election is held to decide this, it will difficult issue to pass because it will be hard for the Niners to paint it as something other than a black-and-white scenario. Great America is the incumbent and doesn't face an uphill battle.

Should the Niners get to the point of actually acquiring the park, there is a question of what "fair market value" is. It comes down to branding and the value of operations at Great America. Close the park and it becomes a sunk cost. They can liquidate the rides and technology there but that sounds like a pennies-on-the-dollar problem.

You may be thinking, "Whew, I'm glad the A's aren't dealing with this," and you'd be right. It could have been this way, however, if the A's went with the Warm Springs site next to NUMMI. NUMMI felt a similar threat and put up the stop sign immediately. The A's and Cisco are partners. The 49ers and Cedar Fair? Not so much. Then again, maybe the 49ers really want the land so that it can be redeveloped in an effort to help pay for the stadium, whose cost is upwards of $800 million. It would be rather similar to what the A's are trying to do, wouldn't it?

Great America owners put foot down

So now it appears that Cedar Fair, the owners of Great America, don't want to play ball. They've come out against the 49ers stadium concept on the lot north of the theme park, a stiffening of their need-more-info stance of a few months ago. Links:

• Chronicle's Matier & Ross
• Mercury News (Julie Patel)
• SF Examiner (Bonnie Eslinger)
  

Wire services and others have picked up on an idea that 49ers spokesperson Lisa Lang has put out there: the 49ers may be interested in buying Great America to make the stadium work. Certainly it sounds interesting on the surface, but there probably isn't much to it. Here's why:

• Cedar Fair has already said it isn't interested in selling. The company only bought the portfolio of theme parks from Paramount a little over a year ago. A look at recent press releases shows that the newly acquired parks have underperformed relative to Cedar Fair's other properties. Cedar Fair notes that they've only begun the transition phase to bring the Paramount parks in line with their regular operations model. This is all part of a long-term strategy. You'd think they'd want to give Great America a shot at raising its performance before it gives up on Santa Clara. After all, it is their core competency. Of course, Cedar Fair's statements are pure PR-speak and should be taken with a grain of salt, but it still makes sense in the end.
  
• How much would Great America be worth? The Paramount portfolio was acquired for $1.24 billion. That's 5 parks. One article notes that the land's assessed value is $114 million but that's virtually meaningless. The 49ers would be buying the whole kit and caboodle. A more realistic estimate would be 1/5th of the portfolio, or $240 million. But the land is owned by the city, not Cedar Fair, so it could be worth less. So what is a fair price? And then what would happen after it's sold? The 49ers would have to turn around and have someone operate the park since that's not what they do. Would they want to develop some portion of the land to recoup their investment? Even if Cedar Fair were playing hardball to secure a good price for their investors, they're in a position that gives them leverage. They're not in an apparently desperate position in which they're hemorrhaging cash. Note: Stock gains from the months following the acquisition have been wiped out as Cedar Fair reported the recent drag on the company's performance from the Paramount parks.
  

One good thing may have come out of this: the Niners are now open to building on the overflow lot across from their team headquarters. That lot would be far more compatible for both parties than the planned site. On the other hand, the following item sounds distressing:

Bottom line, Lang says: "There are a number of site configurations (Cedar Fair) could look at if they are serious about wanting to go forward with the project."

It's a bad sign when most of the so-called negotiations are occurring through the media. Is the city supposed to shepherd this through? It's hard to say.

---

To add intrigue to the situation, former 49er President Carmen Policy is signing on with the SF/Lennar effort to pitch a stadium at Hunters Point.

FUSD Board Presentation on 10/10

Tomorrow, October 10, Keith Wolff will be making a presentation to the Fremont Unified School District Board at the Fremont City Council Chambers. The presentation is scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. There will be a comment period after the presentation.

Reality check

Today's Chronicle article by Carolyn Jones doesn't cover any new ground. Nothing should be expected out of either the A's or Fremont until the next session, which is a couple of weeks away. However, the article is good regardless of whether or not there is any news simply because it helps set expectations and exposes much of the positioning behind the scenes.

(Full disclosure: Ms. Jones contacted me for the article. I did not respond in time to contribute.)

Since the very beginning of formal discussions between the two parties, Fremont has had a very consistent stance on the project: cautious optimism. They're open to the concept and have even expressed a great deal of interest in helping to shape it so that it works in the long run. Nothing's changed except their growing frustration in the Wolffs' repeated delays in providing the development application. I alluded to this frustration in the recap for the last study session.

The process is a slow one and isn't very compatible with the 24-hour news cycle. Readers and commenters (including yours truly, admittedly) have a tendency to jump on every new piece of information to dissect and try to determine which way the wind is blowing. So for those of you looking for a quick approval for an upcoming groundbreaking, you're not going to get it. If you're a critic hoping for a quick knockout blow, you won't see that either. Even when the traffic/transportation study and the EIR come out, the issues that are raised in those documents won't immediately bring a verdict on the project either. Instead, concessions will be made and a decision will come after much study on whether or not to certify the EIR. Then and only then can they parties proceed to groundbreaking.

One thing's for certain: this ballpark business is a lot more CSPAN2 at 4:00 a.m. than primetime reality TV.

Act locally then globally

An article in this week's Silicon Valley/San Jose Business Journal (by Lindsay Riddell) covers the A's business side of the house from a different angle: opportunities abroad. The premise is that while Moneyball keeps the ship running lean and mean, the lack of high-profile players limits potential advertising and sponsorship opportunities.

The first step towards getting high-priced free agents, especially from Japan, is to get on a better financial footing with a new ballpark. Revenues should rise appreciably from current levels for Billy Beane to go after one or more international stars (Beane's somewhat spotty results with big ticket free agents notwithstanding). We can only speculate as to how much, and even team officials admit that they're not going to reach Yankee heights anytime soon.

However, this is an interesting opportunity to open a dialog with fans, especially sabremetric nuts who go ga-ga over measuring value and efficiency. Surely the team's already come up with certain projections about what their payrolls would be leading up the opening of Cisco Field and beyond. That's not to say they should share all of this info with the fans, but it wouldn't be a bad idea to throw fans a bone about what to expect.

For instance, how about a pledge? Again, no specific numbers. We don't know if this year's $80 million payroll translates to $100 million or $120 million in 5 years. However, everyone would be well served by something along the lines of this:

The A's will maintain a payroll similar to the other AL West teams.

The other three teams have payrolls 20-30% higher than the A's, so a pretty sizable bump would be required to get to their level. I've run a couple of models and think that this is doable even without constant sellouts thanks to the way the deal will probably be structured and MLB's revenue sharing rules. So why not at some point throw the fans that bone? It'll make the whole concept easier to swallow for the hardcore fan.

Jon Carroll: Voice of Reason

I haven't touched on the "Is 20 miles really leaving or not?" debate in a while, and was surprised when Chronicle columnist Jon Carroll chimed his with his take. His view is sober and pragmatic, with a good dose of glass half full:

And besides, I wouldn't really be "losing" the A's. They would be right where they've always been, on my television screen. I go to maybe one game a year - partly because I dislike the ballpark so much - so I follow them the way almost everyone follows them.

(I do go to more Giants games, but that's partly because I like the experience. I can take the ferry from Jack London Square and arrive right in McCovey Cove, mere steps from the right-field entrance. AT&T Park is a pleasing place to be and raises my spirits even when the team is losing, which it is a lot. If the A's are going to get a stadium of equal quality, more power to them.)

In many ways, the A's are essentially a television show, and I don't care where they play any more than I care where "Mad Men" is filmed. I understand that this is a heretical notion. Baseball is the nostalgia game. Many people like to think that it preserves the old values. That's why steroids are such a big deal in baseball. Does anyone care if a linebacker is a little juiced? Not really. But baseball is different. It's a church. We must never, ever suggest that it's a branch of the entertainment business.

Kudos to Carroll for his level-headed, casual fan take. And for those of you who want to debate this, I've intentionally left this post short so that there's room for snippets of comments to be placed in the post later today/this weekend.

Comments:

bleacherdave said...
Note what he didn't say - that he would be driving to Fremont. It just doesn't have the sentimental aura of catching a ferry to the game. Which is by the way, a world class approach to a ballpark on a sun-kissed summer morn.

linusalf said...
yes but as jon caroll says he only goes to one game a year. to many many more of us that go to more that one game a year the a's are alot more than just a televison show and the change from oakland a's to silicon valley a's @ fremont would be a big deal.

anonymous (kevin) said...
I personally can't stand the game experience at AT&T Park. It's just so dull and listless. I find everything from the way the batters are announced to the "slash hits" counter totally obnoxious. Contrast this with the energy at the Coliseum -- where "Atomic Dog" by Parliament can be heard.
Then again, I don't like spending time in Mall food courts either.

Oakland Si said...
I take BART to many, many games at the Coliseum. Obviously the Coliseum doesn't bother me nearly as much as it does Carroll...and he doesn't sound as if he would drive to Fremont either. For all he really could care the A's could be playing in Las Vegas.

Jeffrey said...
He didn't say he would be driving to Fremont, but did say he doesn't go to many games in Oakland because of the stadium.
There are more people who will go to Silicon Valley A's @ Fremont games than will be turned off by "Oakland" no longer being in the name of the team. There just aren't that many people who share the passion they have for the A's with the City of Oakland.
I go to way more than one game a year, and I will continue to do so in Fremont, provided I can still get tickets.

Sixto said...
Jeffrey is exactly right... the number of fans who will stop going to A's games because of the move will be far outnumbered by the influx of fans/money from the south bay. And that's why the A's are moving; it's really that simple.

bleacherdave said...
Hey Jeffery,
ever hear that old saying, "If you have to ask, you probably can't afford it."

Jeffrey said...
Did you ever hear the expression "Money is no object."
Seriously, though I am not a millionaire it isn't that I couldn't afford them, it is that I don't know how available tickets will be with the limited capacity.
I could afford to take my wife and kids to a game per home stand at Giants ticket prices.

anthony dominguez said...
Fans that the A's lose from Oakland because of a Fremont relocation "will be far outnumbered by the influx of fans/money from the South Bay." Tell that to Peter Magowan!

transic said...
If Yankee Stadium can be (and is about to be) replaced, then the A's can move to Fremont. It's not like they haven't moved twice before in their entire history.

9/24 22:15 - As much as fans obsess over the daily tribulations of our favorite teams, it is always important to keep that obsession in perspective. Most people in the Bay Area simply don't place any of the Bay Area's six major franchises as part of their daily consciousness, let alone their priorities. For most here and around the country, baseball is merely a form of entertainment. For a growing percentage of fans television is by far the primary method of enjoying home games, not just away games (this despite today's announcement of MLB breaking its seasonal attendance record again). The casual fan's opinion is not worth less than ours because they don't religiously follow the team. It's worth more because they vastly outnumber us, and they have to be convinced to either directly or indirectly support any new venue, from conception through the end of its life. The hardcore fan views a team as relevant, but the casual fan makes the team relevant. That trend will continue into the forseeable future.

Mixed bag

Tonight the parties requested a more informal setting than the typical City Council meeting, even though the session was held in Council Chambers. So instead of the pols sitting on the dais, city officials and developers/architects sat around a bunch of pushed-together tables. This made for a constant flow of ideas and quick exchanges. The format was considered quite positive and will likely be used for other sessions of this type. Keith Wolff led the presentation, aided by Gensler's Marty Borko, who fleshed out the details.

A few new details came out of tonight's work session. Nothing really major, but still worth noting:

• The number of housing units to be built will be close to 3150, a 250-unit jump over previous estimates. Keith Wolff explained that the development team spoke with housing developers and saw potential for such an increase. Perhaps they are anticipating a rebound in the housing market by the time construction begins.
• Land west of Cushing Parkway that was previously designated as interim parking (the "West parcel") may undergo a mix of zoning changes. Instead of purely residential use, up to 300,000 square feet of R&D/office space could be built in at least two-story buildings. 7 acres could be set aside for one more car dealership as part of an extension to the Auto Mall.
  
• With the increase in housing units come plans for greater densities. Originally, much of the acreage would have had 12-25 units per acre. The range has gone up considerably, up to 40 units per acre in some locations. To do this, some buildings would have to be taller than three stories. It's expected that the entire development would show a sort of tapering effect of building heights from the ballpark/village to the outer edges of the lower density residential area. This could pave the way for more affordable homes as well since there would be greater variance in home types and sizes.
  
• The school will in fact be in the residential area. The proposed site is at the southern edge of the property. 4 acres is being considered for the "urban" school setting, an idea that the A's and the city were receptive to. The example cited was Horace Mann Elementary in San Jose. Horace Mann is a 3-acre school that neatly fits into a city block and was only recently reconstructed. A school of this size would not have multiple ballfields or sprawling portable classrooms.

• Neighborhoods would be centered around numerous small parks and open spaces. These small parks would be maintained by the homeowners' association. The neighborhoods are meant to have individual character, a la South Park in SF or Gramercy Park in Manhattan. (Bar set too high? Probably, but that's what they're aiming for.)
• West parcel interim parking would have to be replaced by additional parking in the area before anything could get built on the parcel.
  
• Additional retail spaces are possible within the greater residential area, including a grocery store and smaller shops.
  

I didn't expect much to be revealed about the parking and transportation plans, but there were a few interesting ideas being discussed. None, however, do more than scratch the surface.
The above is my depiction of a parking and traffic management slide shown during the presentation. The idea here is to route cars to the nearest parking lot while minimizing cross-traffic. It would reduce most car movement to right turns. So if you're coming from 880 north of Fremont, you might be redirected to the lot across Auto Mall Parkway. If you're coming from the south, you might be sent to the West parcel. Shuttles would be run from some of the team-operated lots, though it's expected that many will walk.

Parking projections have increased to 11,342 spaces not including the village commercial area garages. The explanation here is that in order to project a worst-case scenario, the village parking has to be considered off limits.

Councilmembers Steve Cho and Bob Wieckowski both suggested pedestrian overpasses to assist the public in crossing both Auto Mall Parkway and I-880. This concept was not met with great optimism, probably due to cost. Regardless, it's worth considering if only to get cost estimates. There's even an opportunity for ad revenue to help pay for the cost.

Towards the end of the session, Mayor Wasserman expressed frustration at the delay surrounding the development application:

"We need to get to the next step in terms of getting the application in and the environmental impact (report) moving."

At the same time he preached patience since the process is expected to run slowly after the application is submitted thanks to the EIR and other studies.

Sierra Club rep Vinnie Bacon had serious reservations about the development. He felt that the details shown so far regarding transit/transportation were "woefully lacking." 3,000 new homes were an area of great concern, and any steps to mitigate impacts on the wetlands area would be akin to placing "a solar panel on a Hummer." He also claimed that the retail component of the village would draw dollars away from existing businesses. He neglected to mention that the retailers at the site would be higher-end and wouldn't necessarily compete with existing retailers in the city. Massimo's owner Bill Rinetti disputed the negative view of economic impact, stating that Fremont needs to keep its entertainment dollar. Rinetti happens to be the brother of A's VP of stadium ops David Rinetti.

Overall, nothing significant. The application is supposed to be out in the next couple of weeks. The next work session will be in another month or so. Until then I'll be twittling my thumbs...

City Council Work Session - Tuesday 9/18

From the Fremont City Clerk:

TO: ALL INTERESTED PARTIES

This is to advise you that a City Council Work Session has been scheduled on the Oakland A's proposed Ballpark Village Project. The City Council Work Session will be from 6:00 p.m. - 8:30 p.m. on Tuesday, September 18, 2007.

The Work Session will be held in the City Council Chambers located at 3300 Capitol Avenue, Building A, Fremont, California.

If you have any questions regarding this Work Session, please contact Economic Development Director Daren Fields at (510) 284-4020 or dfields@ci.fremont.ca.us

Two-and-a-half hours. That's a mighty lengthy session. I'll be there.

Planned school site changed

Common sense has prevailed according to Matthew Artz's piece on the ballpark village. You may remember that the school being planned for the village was originally going to sit on a 40-acre Fremont-owned parcel, 3/4ths of a mile away from the village (upper left corner of pic below). For the school district that was considered a non-starter and they lobbied to have the school located within the community.

The school won't be placed within the shopping center portion of the village, and it wouldn't work adjacent to the ballpark. Chances are it'll go in the area that's slated for temporary parking, where the last phases of the residential buildout are planned. Obviously some homesites would be displaced, but it probably works for the city since many on the council want to see greater variety and higher densities in some sections of the village.

Out of today's luncheon at the Fremont Marriott (sponsored by the Fremont Chamber of Commerce) came this:

Many of the questions from the audience were about traffic issues, which Lew Wolff said were "not quite as serious as everybody says."

The team anticipates that 5,000 fans - about 18 percent of a sellout crowd - would walk or take public transit to games, Keith Wolff said. The same percentage of fans walk or commute to the McAfee Coliseum in Oakland, he said, even though it is next to a BART station.

Where does that 5,000 figure come from? I'm baffled. We know that right now 15-20% take public transit, and without a BART option that is just as convenient as is currently in place, that percentage will surely drop, perhaps precipitously. A mode switch to a shuttle could drop utilization to half of current levels, and that presupposes a Warm Springs BART station. Diesel trains could pick up some of the slack, but nothing close to what BART does (Caltrain accounts for 2% - correction, 4-8% - of attendees at AT&T Park).

As for walking, estimates could be optimistic. Let's say that half of those 5,000 would walk to the ballpark. So 2,500 would either be residents of the village or anyone who works in the vicinity. So to get to that estimate, slightly less than 1 person per residence or business would walk to the ballpark. Is that realistic? Sure, the village will attract fans who want to live near the ballpark. At the same time it's still market rate housing that will attract buyers for other reasons, whether it's the lifestyle center, Fremont's historically low crime rate, or proximity to Silicon Valley. Housing demand, even in this current market slump, won't allow for buyers to purchase based something as peripheral as proximity to a ballpark.

There'll be a chance to further analyze this when a traffic study is released, but if these are the estimates, they have to be immediately labeled specious.

---

It's been reported that the A's have been selected to open next season in Japan. The likely opponent will be the Boston Red Sox, whose roster contains two Japanese stars. Since the Sox sell out every game at Fenway Park and would leave a good deal of money on the table by forgoing a bunch of home dates in Japan, you can guess as to who will "take one for the team."

What's it worth to you?

The commish traveled to Miami and the Twin Cities this week to visit stadium projects in two very different stages. On Tuesday he talked sites with Miami pols. The Orange Bowl appears to be the main candidate because it's now available with the coming departure of the Hurricanes. A downtown site, if it can be acquired, may be preferable. Sun-Sentinel columnist Dave Hyde suggested that the Marlins use the revenue sharing money they're pocketing to bridge the financing gap, an idea I put forth many moons ago. Yesterday, Selig attended the Twins' groundbreaking ceremony. There's even a nice feel good photo of Selig and Twins owner Carl Pohlad clutching hands. I wonder if they were laughing about that $3 million loan Selig received from Pohlad many many moons ago.

In both of these cases, someone - pols, voters, or both - decided that it would be worthwhile to use public money to finance a large portion of the project. In California, we've recently shown that we have a hardline position when it concerns stadium financing. Because of this we've had a few facilities built largely if not entirely with private funds (AT&T Park, Staples Center, Stanford Stadium) and a few more that are outmoded and need to be either replaced or torn down (Monster Park, McAfee Coliseum, San Diego Sports Arena)

Numerous journalists and economists have praised California's privately-financed projects as responsible and potentially trendsetting. While AT&T Park hasn't resulted in a spate of privately-financed venues, at least some markets have responded by getting better deals for themselves, often with municipalities providing only infrastructure changes (Gillette Stadium) or less public funds (New Busch Stadium). The ballpark and ancillary development at Cisco Field are to be privately financed but additional infrastructure costs are unknown.

We in the Bay Area can pat ourselves on the back for being steadfast, but conversely does our lack of willingness to fund these projects indicate that we are somehow lesser sports fans? In the Houston and Philadelphia markets, broad legislation was passed to build billions of dollars worth of new venues. No amount of hearty Bronx activism could stop the new Yankee Stadium from getting tax-free bonds and from devouring public parkland. Those markets are generally considered more sports-crazy than ours. Some would phrase our stance as "having our priorities straight," which is mostly true. But doesn't that undervalue what it means to have a major sports franchise in your town?

The A's annual revenue is around $150 million. That isn't much compared to other local businesses, even in the city of Fremont alone:

• SYNNEX: $6 billion
  
• Logitech: $2 billion
• Lam Research: $1.6 billion
  
• Wal-Mart (2 Fremont stores only): estimated $110 million
  
• Costco: estimated $115 million per store
  
• Fremont Bank (private): $45 million
• Typical chain supermarket: $14 million
• AuctionDrop: $6 million
  

In addition, NUMMI produces some 400,000 cars per year or about $8 billion worth of vehicles, plus parts and other manufacturing operations. So it's not as if the A's are turning Fremont into an economic powerhouse, Fremont already was in its own modest way.

Then again, not too many focus on a single store's performance when analyzing a company, so why should the A's be treated differently? The Oakland Athletics Baseball Company is merely part of a $5 billion enterprise. The team is guaranteed to get coverage for at least 45 seconds in every local late newscast. Local papers devote impressive amounts of resources to team coverage. Dedicated websites give the team enviable amounts of coverage. Charitable endeavors from the team and individual players tend to be more impressive and high-profile than those from "similarly sized" companies.

The impact the A's make on the community is much larger than what a $150 million (revenue) company would make, but smaller than a multibillion dollar, industry-leading plant. How, then, can we quantify what the A's mean to their home city? Marketing consultants try to paint it in terms of the amount of positive exposure a team gives to its city. Economists use multiplier effects to map out investment and consumption associated with teams. None of these things properly account for the average fan who, during an A's road trip, rushes home to catch a 4:05 PM (7:05 PM ET) game on TV with a cold one in hand. That fan may not live in the team's city, could be hundreds if not thousands of miles away. But that fan, in his love of the team, could be curious about the city the team calls home. He might decide, "I'd like to visit this place" or "Maybe I'll go to school near there." Or he may already live there and decide that all other things being equal, he'd like to raise his family there and take his kids to games. All because of a ball team. All for the love of a game. That bond falls into the "quality of life" category. A price can't be placed on it.

Realignment and scheduling

In the previous installment, I made an argument for why realignment and expansion should be done by the 2015 season. In the end it all comes down to balance. That means balance for both leagues, for all divisions, and also for scheduling reasons as well. It would stand to reason that having even numbers of teams throughout the table makes a certain symmetry possible.

Well, I had no idea how bad the scheduling system was until I started to really take a look at it. Anyone looking at a standings table with a rudimentary knowledge of how MLB games are played could easily ascribe a certain level of messiness to the task of scheduling. But when you dig deep the ugliness really starts to show.

In the CBA there are only a few pages devoted to scheduling. Much of the language is meant to dissuade teams from scheduling splot or day-night doubleheaders, which means the language has been largely successful. Regular doubleheaders are not discouraged, but every team has financial reasons to keep games separate. (Yes, I dearly miss the Sunday A's-Indians double dips too.) There's little of interest until you get to the section regarding interleague play:

Each Club may be scheduled to play up to 18 Interleague games during each championship season.

"Up to 18?" That didn't make much sense to me. So I looked at this season's MLB standings with interleague records. Sure enough, most teams played 18 interleague games including all AL teams. Some NL teams, however, played only 15. In previous seasons, some played as few as 12. What gives?

Look at the tables above. There's little rhyme or reason to it. There is a sort of "make good" that occurs in following years but it's just a band-aid to the overall lameness of the system. The unbalanced leagues created this situation. I'm all for interleague play, but there's something seriously wrong with it if some teams play a full interleague schedule - 18 games - while others don't. Then you start getting into which league is more dominant (AL recently) and how many games against specific competition are being played with uneven splits (home/road/intraleague/interleague). These factors contribute to strength of schedule, so every effort should be made to make scheduling as equitable as possible. Unfortunately, as long as the 16-14 scenario continues to exist, the schedules will continue to be unbalanced.

Compare the A's and Giants' scheduling above with the next graphic. It's much simpler and straightforward, and only possible with an 8-division MLB.

In this iteration, the A's would play each of the other three AL West teams 16 times, 8 at home and 8 on the road. 16 isn't a common number for games played between two teams. Normally you'll see a team play a division foe 18-19 times per season, whereas the old pre-expansion balanced schedule had two division rivals play 12-14 times. 16 strikes a good balance between the two, but scheduling it can be a bit tricky. A series is 2-4 games long, so the likely formats would be 3-2-3/3-2-3 or 4-4/4-4 (home/road). A prototype April 2008 schedule would look like this:

• LAA @ OAK, 4 games (Apr 7-10)
• OAK @ SEA, 3 games (Apr 11-13)
• OAK @ POR, 3 games (Apr 14-16)
• SEA @ OAK, 3 games (Apr 18-20)
• POR @ OAK, 3 games (Apr 21-23)
• OAK @ LAA, 4 games (Apr 24-27)

That takes care of the first stretch of division games. SEA and POR have the 3-game sets, so they would also have 2-game home/road sets with the A's just before and after the All Star Break. The A's wouldn't see the Angels until September, when sequence above would be repeated the final 3 weeks of the season. Why spread things out this way? 7-day weeks make it difficult to fit completely uniform scheduling such as 3-game series unless every week has an off day. That format wouldn't work because MLB requires that a regular season be wrapped up in at most 183 days. Running counter to that is a rule that dictates that teams can play at most 20 days in a row without an off day.

When it comes to playing the other AL divisions, it's pretty simple there too. One division's teams (in this case the AL North) would play the A's 12 times, while the other two divisions' teams would face the A's 6 times apiece. There's an alternative below in which the A's would face two divisions' teams 9 times, but it's really all a matter of choice. The nice thing about formatting the schedule this way is that it's easy to segment the play. In-division play is generally reserved for April and September. The other divisions would generally get 2-week stretches. Interleague play would be kept around same timeframe as it currently is: 3 weeks from late May through the middle of June.

If you're interested in further studying the scheduling model, you can download an Excel sample. It has one odd patch in that there's a Friday-Monday 4-game series in September, but everything else works reasonably well. And that's a draft I put together in only a few hours (my adding it delayed this post), so it could certainly use some refinement.

Does scheduling really make that much of a difference? It's hard to say. The nice thing about this type of schedule is its modularity. The components can be moved around so that they can fit in different ways. Are the Twins and Indians continually having trouble in their outdoor ballparks with a late winter in April? Move the in-division block back a week and put them on the road in the Sun Belt first. Need to guarantee that the BoSox and Yanks meet on Patriots' Day? No problem - stick with the normal configuration. Want to reduce the number of interleague games from 18 to 12? Sure thing, and now that makes 6 extra games available for your division rivals.

There's a better way of doing things on the horizon, and it comes with expansion and realignment. Some critics have pointed to dilution of talent, and I say "quantify it." Just as there are crappy 5th starters now, there were crappy 4th starters 30 years ago. Is the current Washington Nationals' roster appreciably worse than the '71 Washington Senators? Of all the controversies that have marked baseball, which is most responsible for the supposed decline in play: out-of-scale economics, juiced balls, bandboxes, performance enhancing drugs, the rise of basketball and football as major competitors for athletes, etc...? I would argue any of those issues is more responsible that a dilution of talent. Major league baseball belongs in as many places as can reasonably support it. Let's see it happen.

Realignment Redux

Last November I posted my thoughts on the future and legacy of Bud Selig. Selig's staying on as commish through 2009. His tenure will have been marked by controversy and polarization. Like him or not, no one will be able to say that nothing happened under Selig.

Towards the end of that post I segued to the topics of expansion and realignment. Expansion won't happen again under Selig's watch, so those in cities without a major league franchise will have to look to his successor for hope. I pitched a two-part proposal which, judging from the comments, generated a good deal of intelligent discussion. I've since tweaked the concept a bit and will now present it again - and this time there are visual aids.

The map above (click map to enlarge, click here for a PDF) shows all existing team cities plus two new ones, Portland and Monterrey. Portland could be switched out with Las Vegas, and Monterrey could be replaced by San Juan, Mexico City, or any number of southern cities such as Charlotte or New Orleans. I'm not going to debate the economic or market merits of a particular city at this point, because I'm projecting that the earliest point at which expansion could occur would probably be 2015. It's likely that by that point most candidate cities will have grown sufficiently large enough to be considered solid mid-markets. The two target cities are placeholders, with Portland representing the AL West and Monterrey the AL South.

Before I explain the plan, it's important to understand how MLB has evolved over time. Team success, regional strengths, and savvy business decisions have come together to turn the National League into a de facto "Southern League" (no, not that one). Consider these facts:

• 11 NL teams reside south of the Mason-Dixon line (extended from the original to the West Coast), whereas 8 out of 14 AL teams are north of the line.
• Atlanta's isolation, its status as one of only major league cities in the South when the Braves moved there in 1966, and the cultivation of a huge audience through TBS gave the team an unique regional hegemony.
• The St Louis Cardinals also experienced domination through the Midwest and parts of the South thanks to the strength of its former flagship radio station, KMOX. And 10 World Series championships.
  
• The Astros started play 7 years before the Senators 2.0 moved to the DFW Metroplex.
• The last two rounds of expansion netted three NL teams, one in Miami and two in the Southwest.
• The Expos became the Nationals and are tapping into Virginia and the Carolinas.
• The Mets, who replaced the California-bound Giants and Dodgers, were an expansion team whose crosstown rival has had a 60-year head start and libraries of history to boot.

Meanwhile, the American League has the one remaining Canadian team, the only team in the Pacific Northwest, and an overhyped but still compelling rivalry in the Northeast that FOX and ESPN are only happy to exploit at every possible juncture. That makes them the "Northern League," no? Mind you, this is not meant to extract from these observations that the NL is more Southern culture or that the AL is more effete. It's purely geographical, and based on the many different types of changes made to get to this point, purely coincidental as well.

It's this distribution that creates a basis for realignment. If the teams are already grouped a certain way, why not take advantage of those regional strengths? The AL East is already an AL "Northeast" with Tampa Bay paying the price by frequently flying north. The NL West is actually the NL "Southwest" when you consider how the five teams there are situated. So why not acknowledge American/North American growth and realign in a way that effectively recognizes our regions?

As I posited in November, four divisions in each league is the way to go. It solidifies regional strengths while reducing travel costs for teams. It keeps teams a two-hour (or less) flight away from their divisional foes and at worst one time zone away. It also simplifies scheduling, which I'll explain further on Sunday.

A look at the tables above reveals that no National League teams were moved to the other league. This is extremely important since two of the newest NL teams, Arizona and Colorado, have expressed no interest in moving to the AL. During the last realignment, Milwaukee was moved to the NL Central partly at Selig's behest since he's always thought of it as an NL city. The West stays the same except for Colorado, which should benefit from its division road night games starting at 6:05 instead of 8:05. In a rather bizarre twist, three pre-expansion NL West teams - Cincinnati, Atlanta, Houston - would be united in the new NL South.

Over in the junior circuit, changes are more dramatic. Not so much in the East, which becomes the "Northeast." The AL North is really the AL Central minus Kansas City. The new AL South is the most radical change. Kansas City and Texas reunite from their old AL West days, which works well since they're less than 500 miles apart. Tampa Bay gets the opposite effect from Colorado in that all of their division opponents are a time zone earlier, putting road night games at 8:05. However, they would benefit from slightly less travel time/distance and more importantly, a better shot of winning the division. Unless revenue sharing is significantly altered, it's difficult not to see the deep-pocketed Yanks and Red Sox battle it out for the AL East crown, even in 2015. Both the O's and Blue Jays have better financial resources at hand than the Rays, so why not move to a place where you have a better shot? On the left coast the division would consist of two California teams and two Northwest teams. The recent combined success of the Angels and A's have created a sleeper rivalry that at times is just as intense as the better known Giants-Dodgers rivalry. By putting an AL team in Portland, the Northwest can develop its own great I-5 rivalry. While it would be nice to have a senior circuit team in the Northwest, there should be plenty of chances to appreciate NL ball via interleague play. The difficulty there would be determining who could be natural rivals - is Seattle-San Diego not a manufactured matchup?

The playoff system would still field 4 teams from each league, except that the wild card berth would be replaced by a 4th division winner. That's where a potential negative lies. The AL South would consist of 3 recent cellar-dwellers and an expansion team. Teams that come in 2nd in the other division races could look at the AL South and consider it weak and unworthy of a guaranteed playoff berth. But honestly, that criticism could be leveled at virtually every season, just look at the '06 NL Central. Texas could have a run to dominance because they financially outstrip KC and Tampa Bay and would presumably do the same to Monterrey. Eliminating the wild card removes the restriction that two teams can't play each other in the divisional round. A simple comparison of overall records would determine seeding.

In the previous realignment discussion, several alternatives were mentioned.

• A 3rd New York team. Some suggested Brooklyn or northern New Jersey. I could entertain this possibility if the commissioner's office were less owner-oriented. I just don't see the Yanks and Mets giving up their territorial and broadcast rights very easily. TV rights/networks make up at least 25% of each franchise's value, and their collective control over the market translates into another large share. For a 3rd team to work in practice, the next commish would have to be courageous enough to take on the two NY teams - and by extension, all of the other big market teams. A 3rd team would also require a willing ownership group, something that shouldn't be too difficult to find in the area. Cablevision/MSG would be a likely bidder. By 2015, the franchise fee for such a team could fetch $1 billion, netting each team $31 million. In addition to that, how much of a payoff would it take for either existing team to allow a new kid on their block?
  
• Other locales. Vegas is always a popular mention, but as we've seen from current events the perception problem that gambling represents is a difficult odor to remove. Southern cities such as San Antonio, Charlotte, Memphis, Nashville, and New Orleans may be overextended to varying degrees with their existing teams. The short and long-term viability of Portland and Monterrey have to be questioned as well before a team could be awarded to either city. It really comes down to choosing one team in the West and one in the South.
  
• A return to the 154-game schedule. Yes, the season is too long, especially when you include the postseason. A reduction of 8 games would shorten the season 8-10 days, which would perfectly fit the divisional round. Unfortunately, the revenues are too great for the owners to go along with it. A quick computation of gate revenue (128 games x $22 per ticket x 32,000 seats) shows that the teams would lose $90 million alone at the turnstiles. That's more gate than the average team pulls in for an entire season.
  
• 2 divisions of 8 teams per league. There are two reasons given for this type of alignment. The chief rationale is that the pennant races would have meaning again as only two teams in each league would qualify for the postseason. We've passed a point of no return on that front. The money's too great with expanded playoffs and many fans like the wild card for the hope it represents. The other rationale is that teams could be realigned into divisions based solely on geography, eliminating the AL/NL relationship altogether, as suggested in the Radical Realignment concept. I'm no purist, but MLB is not like the other three major sports. The DH is the obvious difference. How does that get addressed? It wasn't too long ago that the two leagues had different umpiring crews. The aforementioned D-Backs and Rockies don't want to move to the AL. Why would a solely geographical distribution fly with the owners? It's been said that Peter Magowan would sue MLB if they tried to realign in this manner.
  

Coming Sunday: Scheduling.

Fremont Chamber to host ballpark forum

After the big city council session last month, I had mentioned in a comment that we were entering a silent period. Now that we're a week away from September, everything's starting to crank up again. The first event of note is a luncheon being held by the Fremont Chamber of Commerce on September 10 at the Fremont Marriott. The luncheon will serve as a public forum for discussion of Cisco Field and related development. According to the event description, the long-awaited development application will have been filed by that date. You can, of course, register online.

Public Policy Forum: Cisco Field
Sponsored by The Fremont Chamber of Commerce
Monday, September 10, 2007 (reg.11:30) noon-2pm

The Fremont Chamber of Commerce will be hosting a public policy forum on Monday, September 10th beginning at Noon at the Fremont Marriott. The guest speakers will be Lew Wolff, co-owner and managing partner of the Oakland Athletics and Keith Wolff, vice president of venue development for the Oakland Athletics. They will be presenting the plans for Cisco Field, talking about the application process/progress (they will have filed an application with the City by this date) and answering questions from the audience.

Tickets:
$30 person for Chamber members
$40 for non members
Lunch is included.
$400 - table sponsorship
$600 - event sponsorship

Registration begins at 11:30 am
Forum begins at noon

This promises to be the first of many public forums and community outreach events throughout the next several months.

Keeping up with the Joneses - Summer '07

It's been six months since the last progress report. This is a snapshot of where four teams are as of today.

Nothing's changed here on the progress bars since February. The development app hasn't been submitted yet, and recent presentations have been good on the conceptual level but have been short on details. The unique funding method is dependent on rezoning industrial land to commercial/residential, so you'll see the top two bars move together or not at all.

Last week, Marlins President David Samson and Bud Selig both let loose the veiled threat of relocation, saying that there hasn't been much progress on either the site-finding or financing fronts. Magically, today the University of Miami announced that its football team is relocating to Dolphin Stadium starting in the 2008 season. The "U" will vacate the 70-year-old Orange Bowl for at least $1.5 million more in annual revenue and a better parking situation, though they will lose the tradition and intimacy that came with the "OB." According to this link the City of Miami-owned 31-acre site is worth $19-22 million for both the land and stadium. The team prefers the 9-acre Government Center site downtown, but acquisition is considered far more difficult. Now that the 'Canes are locked into a 25-year deal at Joe Robbie/Blockbuster/Pro Player/Dolphin(s) Stadium, there's extra pressure on both the city and the Marlins to complete the deal. The Marlins' existing lease at DS expires after the 2010 season, and it's unlikely that the two resident football teams will tolerate a baseball infield beyond that. For the Marlins, there are still problems bridging the remaining $30 million that needs to be financed. Additional parking in the form of garages will probably need to be built to placate nearby residents' concerns.

Yesterday an arbitration panel ruled in a split decision that the downtown ballpark site, which was taken via eminent domain, is worth $24.8 million, or over $10 million more than the deposit plunked down by Hennepin County to take the land. The original owners of the site had pegged the land to be worth $65 million. The decision is non-binding and both sides can appeal after a 48-hour cooling off period. Complicating matters is the dissenting member of the three-person panel, who filed a separate report that appraised the land to be worth $33.8 million. While the land is already being cleared for construction, the groundbreaking ceremony hasn't actually happened yet. Originally targeted for August 2, the ceremony was postponed in the wake of the I-35W bridge collapse. If one starts the clock on September 1, the Twins will have 32 months to get everything ready for Opening Day 2010 - a huge improvement over the stadium's prospects last February.

The Nat's ballpark appears to be progressing nicely, even as it zooms way past budget and DC pols are looking under every couch cushion to fund it. There remain issues involving parking and transportation planning, but as far as the ballpark goes, it's on track.

I can't forget to mention the New York stadia. There are six new venues either in planning or construction stages in the New York metropolitan area. The combined value of the two baseball stadia, one football stadium, one soccer stadium, and two new arenas? Nearly $5 billion. The venues:

• Prudential Center (2007) - NJ Devils, $400 million
• New Yankee Stadium (2009) - $1.3 billion (including park relocation and transit costs)
• Citi Field (2009) - $610 million
• Giants/Jets Stadium (2010?) - $1.3 billion
• Barclays Center (2009?) - Brooklyn Nets, $1 billion (exclusive of ancillary development)
• Red Bull Park (2008) - Red Bull New York, $100 million

Now that's out of everyone else's league.