06 November 2008

Measure B intrigue

I've been checking on Santa Clara County's Measure B (BART-to-Silicon Valley) since Election Night, and it has been inching closer to the magic two-thirds mark with each update. The Merc's Mr. Roadshow (Gary Richards) reported yesterday that some 164,000 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted, a vast number that could certainly prove to be a game changer.

As of today at 4:19 p.m., these are the results:
Santa Clara County Measure B (Two-thirds majority required to pass, 1142 of 1142 precincts reporting)
Yes - 345132, 66.41%

No - 174528, 33.59%
That's a bit higher than last night's tally:
Yes - 305729, 66.27%
No - 155582, 33.73%
That leaves roughly another 100,000 votes to be counted. So far, the additional voters have been coming in at a 67.53% Yes/32.47% No clip. I'll put my Nate Silver hat on and project the remaining 100,000 votes, based on the new distribution:
Yes - 412662, 66.59%
No - 206998, 33.41%
Oh, missed it by that much. Assuming that there are 100,000 votes outstanding, Measure B will require a 68% Yes/32% No clip for it to pass. That would put the results as:
Yes - 413132, 66.67%
No - 206528, 33.33%
The difference between passing and EPIC FAIL would be 470 votes. Who said a single vote didn't count for much?