06 November 2008

Measure B intrigue

I've been checking on Santa Clara County's Measure B (BART-to-Silicon Valley) since Election Night, and it has been inching closer to the magic two-thirds mark with each update. The Merc's Mr. Roadshow (Gary Richards) reported yesterday that some 164,000 absentee and provisional ballots remain to be counted, a vast number that could certainly prove to be a game changer.

As of today at 4:19 p.m., these are the results:
Santa Clara County Measure B (Two-thirds majority required to pass, 1142 of 1142 precincts reporting)
Yes - 345132, 66.41%

No - 174528, 33.59%
That's a bit higher than last night's tally:
Yes - 305729, 66.27%
No - 155582, 33.73%
That leaves roughly another 100,000 votes to be counted. So far, the additional voters have been coming in at a 67.53% Yes/32.47% No clip. I'll put my Nate Silver hat on and project the remaining 100,000 votes, based on the new distribution:
Yes - 412662, 66.59%
No - 206998, 33.41%
Oh, missed it by that much. Assuming that there are 100,000 votes outstanding, Measure B will require a 68% Yes/32% No clip for it to pass. That would put the results as:
Yes - 413132, 66.67%
No - 206528, 33.33%
The difference between passing and EPIC FAIL would be 470 votes. Who said a single vote didn't count for much?


Tony D. said...

66.59? Why do you do this to me Rhamesis. I know a "provisional" co-worker who voted yes for B. Hopefully the rest of the young, progressive, late "provisionals" voted the same. I'm predicting 68% for! Perhaps someone could sneak in a box of, say, 500 "yes" votes into the registrar's office for safe measure.

James said...

The Argus reports this morning that despite the apparent failure of Measure B, The Warm Springs extension is still on track. The contract for tunneling under Lake Elizabeth is scheduled to be advertised in February, and service to South Fremont is expected to begin in 2014.