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06 November 2006

Selig to visit next week, announcement coming?

Update (10:22 PM) - Matier and Ross chime in. I've now heard 35,000, 40,000, and now 36,000 as the capacity. Ray Ratto also makes sure that Fremont knows its place in the pecking order.

Update (3:05 PM) - Paul T. Rosynsky and Chris De Benedetti report that the press conference could take place at Cisco headquarters in San Jose. And MLB spokesman Richard Levin chimed in on the city name issue:

"There are no rules on the books (regarding names),'' said Richard Levin, spokesman for Major League Baseball. "It is something the commissioner would have to deal with.''

Cue the commish.

Update (2:48 PM) - Barry Witt reports that Lew Wolff will meet with Fremont City Council members this week to give them a sneak peek at the Pacific Commons development plans.

KCBS sports reporter and one-time fill-in radio play-by-play man Steve Bitker has learned that "the Oakland Athletics will soon announce plans to move the club to Fremont, and build a new stadium complex there." In addition, MLB commish Bud Selig will fly in next week, probably to give it his blessing. Selig and the MLB office have been uncharacteristically quiet regarding the A's efforts. That's a sharp contrast from the Marlins' situation, which appears to have MLB instead of the team negotiating directly with the pols.

With the expectation that Cisco officials will also be present, Fremont may be the place for the announcement. The forecast for November 14: Scattered showers. Apropos?

Bitker's scoop is an interesting one. As a tenured Bay Area media guy and former A's employee he's got tons of access to local sports franchises, but he has "inside baseball" going the other way too. His wife, Alice Lai-Bitker, just happens to be Alameda County District 3 Supervisor.

In other news, the San Jose Earthquakes/Oakland A's South Bay office will officially open this Wednesday, November 6. Check out Soccer Silicon Valley for more details.

58 comments:

Anonymous said...

So, does this move us in front of the Marlins or Twins on your stadium-progress-o-meter?

PS: I thought that was a great way to look at it and think you should make it a regular feature of the front page.

Anonymous said...

so the staduim is now a 40k capacity as opposed to 35k that was proposed a year or two ago?

Anonymous said...

yes I think Silicon Valley will be the name, or better yet, the first CORPORATE NAME calling them the Cisco Athletics.

Either way, say goodbye to us faithful Oakland A's fans.

Anonymous said...

So here it is. We have been waiting for years for this moment. I for one am glad the drama is about to play itself out. Fremont will be good for the A's. ML, are the EIR's going to have to start at ground zero? Or are a lot of the preliminary zoning/enviromental issues already adressed. It seems as though the A's will have a firm partnership with the city of Fremont, which should go a long way towards ensuring that there are no unecessary hurdles to overcome. Any guesses on how long before the legal hurdles are cleared before an actual groudbreaking? Also, how long from groundbreaking until completion of the park?

Anonymous said...

Wow,
Its pretty unbelievable that this is happening.
Vertigo, thanks for keeping this site up to date, I've really appreciated it over the last year.
Connie Mack

Marine Layer said...

Background stuff from the EIR like soil studies is probably transferable. The scope of the project is vastly different, so the impacts section will have to be rewritten. There's potential for problems there because putting housing, retail, and a ballpark in a place originally slated for offices will have vastly different (and potentially negative) impacts. Non-expert opinion - it would make sense to have a large physical buffer between the development and the wetlands portion to help mitigate those impacts.

The good thing is that should the land deal move through quickly, demo and land prep should be a piece of cake. That could set the stage for the ballpark to be built in 24 months. Optimistically, groundbreaking could happen in the spring of 2008. Maybe earlier.

Anonymous said...

Assuming that groundbreaking is in 2008 (although I suspect 2009 at the earliest), that is still many many years of playing before diminished and angry crowds at the Coliseum. Wolff has to know that once the announcement is made that becomes public knowledge. Perhaps he realizes that there's little he can do diplomatically to get people used to the idea of the A's moving to the other end of the county.

Then there's the possibility that the zoning applications be turned down. Should that happen then it would be a huge embarrassment.

Anonymous said...

Opening day 2010 is a reasonable target day for the park? Wow, that seems awfully quick. In three years the A's could be playing in their new home. It seems surreal. Don't the options for the Coli play out in 2011? If that's true it would seem that the ownership group really has calculated this move to the last decimal point. Interesting times to be an A's fan.

Who exactly has the final approval for the EIR's? It would appear obvious that the city of Fremont has no objections to the park. Who else would be able to kick up dust concerning the rezoning of the land?

Marine Layer said...

2010 is possible but it's a best case scenario assuming that the A's breeze through the approval process. That includes the county, which has to approve the land use as well. The team doesn't need to rush anything, so they're in a great position.

If the zoning change isn't approved, then all bets are off. But considering one of the county supervisors is the biggest political force behind it and there appears to be some measure of tacit approval, there remains one major obstacle for the EIR: wetlands preservationists. Not for the project land but for surrounding land. They fought hard to limit the scope of the original Cisco-centered project and its effect on the environment. This change will not make it any easier.

Anonymous said...

Who exactly are the Preservationists? It's one thing to foment opposition to a corporate entity, quite another to lock horns with city/county government pushing a high profile project. Are you suggesting perhaps that they will resort to the courts for an injuction? I could see that being a problem.

jonclaude4 said...

In government circles, Fremont is one of the best run cities around, so I suspect the process will be much quieter and efficient than larger cities like Oakland or San Jose would've been.

Previous comment of "surreal" says it all. Thanks ML, and congratulations A's!!!

Marine Layer said...

As I understand it, the EPA raised the biggest objections. So they worked with Fish & Wildlife to create the wetlands preserves. Other large parcels were purchased or donated for wetlands creation. Here's a bit of irony - some of the vernal pools that make up some of that treasured habitat were man-made when dirt was moved from the Pacific Commons area to create the Fremont Auto Mall.

There will be NIMBY matters to deal with as well, including debates about the future of the city. Those should prove interesting, moreso than the San Jose EIR meetings.

Anonymous said...

The hell with Fremont and Soccer! Lew Wolff Giving San Jose a MINOR league soccer team (upon having the city of San Jose wasting money on a stadium site) is no consolation prize for not getting the A's proper. Keep the "world" sport where it belongs Lew...somewhere else in the world! This post brought to you by a pissed off San Jose ballpark supporter.

Anonymous said...

ML, do you agree with Ratto's comment "ultimately, the A's profoundly will regret leaving Oakland for any place other than downtown San Jose. "

Anonymous said...

I'm not ML, but I don't agree with that point. I agree with the rest of his article though. A downtown location is best, and downtown SJ would have been much better than Fremont, as would downtown Oakland. Neither of those is available and Wolfe can't wait around for years and years -- or probably forever -- for one of those situations to change.

But a new park in Fremont is way better than staying in the Coliseum. It's not even close.

Marine Layer said...

Ratto's statement is a bit bombastic and he has most of the motivation part. As far as analyzing the business end - he makes a good sports columnist. He understands that the A's are making this huge investment, and sees that it's a real estate deal, but he doesn't connect the dots to realize that the financing model really only works in Fremont, not in San Jose.

So no, I don't agree with Ratto's statement.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure downtown Oakland would be better than Fremont. There are perception and reality issues with Oakland. The perception that I've heard for thirty years from causal fans and people in general is that Oakland is high crime area to be avoided at all costs whereas in reality it's only a few problem areas. I'm not convinced that building a ballpark in downtown Oakland will resolve that perception. It’s a shame.

Anonymous said...

ML,
Ray Ratto makes an interesting point. Why Lew Wolff's rush on Fremont when the A's are making money at the Coliseum? And why extend the lease at the Coliseum (in theory till 2014) if he's going to move fast on Fremont? And do you know ML if the other owners (like John Fisher) are involved in the decision making of the A's future? If Ratto is correct in his piece, Lew Wolff should just hold off for 2-3 years...then, once San Jose's Diridon land deal is complete and new political structure is well in place, make the deal that he really wants.

Marine Layer said...

That's another problem with Ratto's idea. Sure, the A's are making money through revenue sharing, but why do you think Wolff was selected to head an ownership group? It's because he's considered a guy who can get things done - namely a stadium deal. If the owners and Selig wanted to keep the status quo they would've kept Schott/Hofmann group in place. Wolff is expected to deliver, and so far he's doing the job. The owners want to up the revenue pool leaguewide and limit the instances of huge sharing receipts to "emergency" type situations.

The key is that in the new CBA the revenue sharing percentage has actually dropped. Teams have to be more self-sufficient. Keeping the A's on the dole doesn't move them any further towards that goal.

Also, I wouldn't assume that San Jose will become friendlier towards a ballpark or Wolff's concept. Chuck Reed's going to be the new mayor, and he's all about fiscal responsibility, not handouts.

Anonymous said...

At least it's not San Jose.

Anonymous said...

Hey ML,

I would like your take on something that I've been thinking about the last few days. Many people fault the Fremont plan because, "there is no there there." I was recently looking at old photo's when Angel stadium was being constructed and some earlier ones when Disney was being built. There was definately no "there" there at the time. Yet a few years later, the whole population demographic of the LA basin had shifted to the point that Disney was only a few miles from the center. Could this be a long term strategy for Wolfe? It's quite obvious that available sites for building are rapidly shrinking in the bay area. Could Fremont become an epicenter for new construction/infill in the next few years? Does Lew the real estate man see something that others are missing?

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:50 - you may be right. I never really bought into the whole Oakland image thing. It's hard for me to believe that people are actually afraid to go to Oakland -- their loss if you ask me. But maybe there are a lot of people who would have supported the A's if they weren't from Oakland. They're like an inverse of all the "I'm through supporting the A's" whiners embarassing themselves and all A's fans on blogs, message boards and letters to the editor everywhere.

I never realized the city of Oakland was such a polarizing topic. A lot of people seem to either never enter it or never leave it. Not many of us who treat it like any other city in the Bay Area with its good points and bad points.

Marine Layer said...

The Fremont-Anaheim conparison doesn't hold up well. Anaheim has been and continues to be much more aggressive in its development plans than Fremont. Anaheim has a ballpark and wants a NFL stadium, has a new arena and an old arena/convention center. Plus Disneyland. Fremont is still largely a city made up of small towns with a hard-to-define center. If anything the A's-PacCom plan will create a sixth "town" to go with Warm Springs, Irvington, Niles, Centerville, and Mission San Jose. There are infill housing developments happening within city limits, but no one's aiming to build mega highrises a la Anaheim's Golden Triangle. Fremont's also curtailed development of its hills, which may permanently confine it to less than 300,000 residents even though it takes up much more area than Oakland.

Anonymous said...

Look at it this way; you're a little kid growing up in Oakland after the A's move to Fremont. You're getting to the age where you're interested in baseball.

Or; you're an adult who has just moved to Oakland from the MidWest and you want to start following a local team.

Either way, are you going to follow the team in San Francisco or the one in Fremont?

San Francisco has a beautiful ballpark on the water in one of the world's most charming cities. You can BART there or even take the ferry in under 30 minutes.

On the other hand, you can get stuck in traffic for an hour and a half on the freeway as you venture to watch a game in a sprawling, residential suburb.

Wow. Tough choice. Wolff sure is smart.

Anonymous said...

I may have misspoke ML. What I meant was how does Fremont compare now with where Anaheim was 30 or 40 years ago? Although I realize that Lew is in his 70's, but could it be that he's thinking of a "legacy" for his descendents?

Would it be possible for this sixth town to coalesce into the defacto downtown area with the advent of the ballpark village? I still can't quite get my mind around exactly what a ballpark "village" is. By the way, thanks for taking the time to answer what may appear to you to be ignorant questions. I have never set foot in Fremont and have quite a conflicting mental picture of exactly what the town entails.

Anonymous said...

Wow, it's amazing how a lot of people have negative stereotypes of Oakland without ever stepping foot in the city limits. Are people afraid of diversity and culture?

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:13:

Okay, look at it another way... you're a kid growing up in San Jose (a city, by the way, with twice Oakland's population) and you you're getting to the age where you're interested in baseball.

Or you're an adult who has just moved to San Jose from the MidWest and you want to start following a local team.

Either way, are you going to follow the team in San Francisco or the one in Fremont?

San Francisco has a beautiful ballpark on the water in one of the world's most charming cities. But still, you'd be stuck in traffic for an hour and a half getting there. Oakland, a city not without its charm and benefits, has a reputation of being one of the most crime-infested municipalities in the country. There is little in the way of dining options in the vicitnity of the Coliseum. And either you'd spend an hour or so driving there or 30 minutes driving to Fremont BART and another 30 minutes on the train.

On the other hand, you can get in your car and be at Pacific Commons in 20 minutes or so. You'd have the most state-of-the-art ballpark in the world, views of the beautiful Fremont Hills, including Mission Peak. You'll have countless dining choices within walking distance of the ballpark, and sports bar options afterwords.

Not a tough choice. Yes, Wolff is smart. He's going after a million potential new fans as well as an amazing wealth of corporate sponsors.

Anonymous said...

Also, it must be nice for that "FAN" in San Jose to enjoy a meal at some strip mall restaurant around gridlock traffic on 880 in Fremont. HMMMMMMMMMMM Applebee's or TGI Friday's. So appetizing!!!!

Anonymous said...

The stadium being built is to appease an old man who doesn't want to be left out of the new park loop in MLB. About 18 months ago when the Oakland Village idea was proposed, he said they required BART and needed as much tranportation access to it.....well this new plan has nothing, traffic is already wall to wall in the area....those restricted to PT will probably avoid the whole situation as it will take time to get to the park...Oakland gave him several options, all were turned down by Wolff, I mean what's wrong with putting up a park in the parking lot, you have BART, existing infrastructure, etc. Wolff's a greedy bastard who wants to get as much $$$ out of it. Oakland wouldn't bend over backwards for that crap. That Oakland village thing he proposed would require the City/Wolff to purchase land from hundred's of property owners...you get one guy not willing to sell....the whole thing blows up in your face. Wolff is just jerking the city around. Oakland gave him a couple of options. Look he's willing to fork over 300 million to put up the entire project stadium and mini city surrounding the park....the land is given to him by Cisco for naming rights. Rumor has it this project will be privately funded, all the City has to do is Survey it and make certain it is all up to code...easy task. He wants control of the entire thing, in Oakland he would only control the stadium, not much else outside of the stadium. Look at the Kings, the Maloofs wanted control of what proprietors can surround the proposed arena. It's ridiculous, owners want free handouts, if not they'll wrap up business and go somewhere else like big babies, with it they take 40 years of tradition away from hundreds of thousands of fans. Several propective owners were shot down because their strategy was to keep the A's in Oakland...Selig shot them down...then Selig finds old frat buddy Wolff and man this is turning into a stinker, one red flag from City of Fremont....bye bye. The problem with Fremont is the City money, it came to light in the summer that they are operating at losses...thus the cancellation of police responding to burglar alarms...now you add the stadium, who's going to pay for the extra police....not Wolff, it's the City's problem. We'll know more come next week when they hold the presser...then again the weasel that is Wolff, it may all be a farce, maybe he already knows Fremont ain't going to make it.

Anonymous said...

The A's had attendances of 15k and 17k on the final homestand when they had a single digit magic number. The fans have voted on a ballpark in Oakland... they're not interested

Anonymous said...

Anon 11:38... try PF Changs or Claim Jumper, both of which just opened in Pacific Commons. That beats, hands-down, the greasy burger joint under the BART walkway in my view.

Marine Layer said...

jeff - Anaheim was in the throes of a development boom by the time the 60's hit. Disneyland came in '55 IIRC, and Anaheim hasn't looked back since.

I agree that for Wolff this has to be something of a legacy piece. Think of the ballpark village as a sort of Main Street adjacent to the ballpark with a hotel, restaurants, bars, the museum, and other establishments. They're going to have to work hard to make it not seem contrived or manufactured, so I think they'll be looking for less commonplace (at least to the Bay Area) partners as tenants. ESPN Zone, anyone?

Anonymous said...

ML, do you think any of the other high-tech companies will get involved in the project? Steve Jobs used to be on the board at Gap

Anonymous said...

Get busy dumping the A's and becoming Giants fans. Please start embarassing that fan base and stop embarassing this one. You're incessant whining and crying isn't needed or wanted. And it isn't going to change a thing. You're really too much. "Selig planned this all along." "It's a big conspiracy." "The whole world is against Oakland." God, did all of you stop your emotional development in grammer school? These are pre-teen-style defense mechanisms kicking in.

For the millionth time: to Selig and the rest of the planet, this is a teeny, tiny, minor little shift to the south within the same market. It has nothing to do with the arbitrary nature of city limit boundaries.

Anonymous said...

Bwahahaha! Good strategy! Let's bag on the food options at Pacific Commons. Because god knows there are so many great places to eat right outside the Coliseum!

Anonymous said...

Nothing like fake Chinese food meant for mainstream America at PF Changs. I'll take a real Chinese restaurant over some glorfied Panda Express. I'll enjoy the real Chinese places in Oakland Chinatown anyday.

Anonymous said...

Anon 1:13... Ahhh, but therein lies the rub. Who do you think Wolff's target fanbase is? I'd say mainstream America! Oh, and since you are now taking people away from the greater Coliseum area to what you would probably refer to "authentic" Chinese restaurants, Fremont has a number of them as well, just as easy to get to by car from Pacific Commons as from the Coliseum to other Oakland areas. And you're not taking your life in your hands by getting to them!

Anonymous said...

Ahhhh, we have someone who is afraid of diversity and people of different backgrounds. If you are afraid of "And you're not taking your life in your hands by getting to them!", then that means St. Louis and Detroit shouldn't have a baseball team. HMMMMM!!!!

Anonymous said...

Wow, where to start? OAFC and some here are jumping off the A's bandwagon. BYE! This is a small shift to help the A's. Let us wait and see how it plays out. Wolf is a smart man. He knows he needs infrastructure and public transit to get this done. The fan ase will expand, not contract. Please drop all the whoa is me comments. There is no conspiracy. Oaklnd could not compete.

Anonymous said...

This isn't about no OAFC, it's about baseball abandoning the rich, baseball history that Oakland has. Where was Rickey Henderson from?

Anonymous said...

Also, Oakland has great diversity that you won't find in other parts of the country. Where can you find sizeable populations of African Americans, Asian Americans, Caucasians, and Latino Americans all together? This is what is so great about the baseball games in Oakland, the crowd is more diverse than say Cleveland.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:05. My comment has nothing to do from differing backgrounds. It has everything to do with Oakland's crime statistics, which speak for themselves. I have a number of African-American friends who won't step foot certain neighborhoods in Oakland, some of which border the Coliseum. And if you have fans, black, white, or anything in between who are fearful of their safety in certain Coliseum-contiguous areas, you have a problem getting fans to patronize local businesses. That said, you have no idea of what my background is or what my political views are. So quit putting words in my mouth and stop making assumptions on subjects you know nothing about.

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:11... where is Dennis Eckersley from?

Anonymous said...

Anon 2:13... New York, Philadelphia, Washington, DC and suburbs, Los Angeles, San Francisco, among others. Your argument fails.

Anonymous said...

Uh, where was Dennis Eckersely born?

OAKLAND!!!!

Anonymous said...

If i'm right, SF has a declining African American population.

Census figures show that from 1990 to 2000, while San Francisco’s overall population increased more than 7 percent, the number of people who listed their race as African American fell from 76,343 to 58,791, a decline of 23 percent, more than any major city in the country has experienced. The black population has been decreasing steadily since its peak of 96,078 in 1970; since then, the percentage of San Franciscans who are African American has dropped from 13 percent to 8 percent. Local residents swear that Bayview–Hunters Point was about 80 percent African American in 1970. Now, the percentage has dropped to 45, which means there is no majority African American neighborhood in San Francisco at all.

Anonymous said...

Philly has a really small Asian population at 4.5%. Hispanic or Latino population is at 10.5%.

Anonymous said...

Let's be honest: a ballpark in Fremont will likely be pretty mediocre (see The Ballpark at Arlington), especially when compared to the Giants' home. The A's building their new stadium in Fremont will likely guarantee that the franchise will be second-class to the Giants in perpetuity. I don't think that would necessarily be the case if they were to build in Oakland or even in San Jose. This is a bad day for A's fans.

Anonymous said...

Right on brother. Also, a ballpark in Fremont is going to be cheezy. What are we going to do, have a parade down Mowry brought to you by the Fremont Auto Mall? Be sure to eat at Ruby Tuesday's.

Anonymous said...

If they built a new stadium in Oakland it would be cheaper because they'd only need a 10k capacity

Anonymous said...

Jeeves, are you kidding? Worse than the Coliseum? What are you talking about? The park being discussed, FWIU, will be the most state-of-the art stadium in the country, if not the world. But you just go right ahead and keep dilluding yourself because you aren't getting what you want.

Anonymous said...

PS, Jeeves... this is a great day for Athletics fans because we are finally getting the stadium we deserve.

Anonymous said...

Anon 3:04... yes, he was born in Oakland, and grew up in Fremont. Why did his family leave Oakland and migrate to Fremont? I would venture to say it's probably the same reason my family left Oakland and moved to Fremont after three generations.... rising crime rates!

Anonymous said...

Man, you guys never stop just making shit up. Now Oakland is the only city on the planet with people from different backgrounds and different ethnicities. Oh and the only city on the planet with authentic Chinese food. Wow. I'm so glad the A's fan base will no longer have to count folks like you among them. I'd say the average IQ of A's fans went up significantly with this development.

Don't like Fremont? Get busy rooting for another team now. No one will miss you. Good bye and good riddance.

Anonymous said...

Jeeves and Anon 3:21...

According to a report from the San Jose Mercury:

" [Wolff] said this is going to be the most modern, most advanced technological facility in the country," said Fremont Councilman Bob Wieckowski, one of the council members who met with Wolff.

Council members said Wolff had not decided yet whether to drop Oakland from the team's name, but Wolff offered "Fremont A's" and "Silicon Valley A's" as possibilities.

"It's not a settled issue," Mayor Bob Wasserman said. "They have an interest in having a good, clear identity, probably a regional one. We have an interest in the name Fremont. There's a feeling we'll try to accommodate both of those."


Cheers!

Anonymous said...

James said...

"Jeeves, are you kidding? Worse than the Coliseum? What are you talking about? The park being discussed, FWIU, will be the most state-of-the art stadium in the country, if not the world. But you just go right ahead and keep dilluding yourself because you aren't getting what you want."

I actually don't have a preference between San Jose or Oakland. Either way, history tells us that the vast majority of consistently successful baseball teams play in high-density urban areas. There is no intelligent way that anyone can refute that. Even Dodger Stadium, with its sea of parking, is a short walk from the L.A. City Hall.

Furthermore, it is nonsensical to compare the experience at a future Cisco Field with the experience at the Coliseum. Cisco Field will be compared with AT&T Park, not with the Coliseum.

Anonymous said...

Jeeves,

You said (and I responded to):

Let's be honest: a ballpark in Fremont will likely be pretty mediocre (see The Ballpark at Arlington), especially when compared to the Giants' home.

All indications are that the Park at Pacific Commons will be nothing short of an amazing showplace.

But then you try to refute my rebuttal by making the profoundly absurd argument that teams who play in urban parks do better than teams who play outside of an urban core. Come on! You can do better than that. Do you actually expect us to believe that the A's wouldn't have made the playoffs if their ballpark was in Fremont? A good team is a good team. It doesn't matter if they play in Tallahase or Timbuktu. If your argument is that more people will come to a game in an urban park, you may have a point, even though that's not what you said. Even so, I guess we'll just have to wait and see that the stadium plan is, won't we? It has been crystal clear throughout this whole process, since word broke that Fremont will probably be the new home, that Wolff is an amazing outside-the-box thinker. A lot of naysayers (yourself included) have posted statement after statement, without rational argument, as to why this won't work. Have you ever known Wolff not to make money at something? Do you think his massive wealth, his ownership of 20 or so upscale hotels, a MLB team, and numerous office buildings stemmed from stupidity? Of course not. He knows what he's doing. He's put a lot of thought into it. He's going after the huge surge in fanbase and a huge increase in corporate sponsorships in the only way possible... by moving the team from a stagnant municipality to a vibrant area, all the while keeping it in the same county. And one of the major benefits of Fremont is that it can be considered a part of the Oakland area or a part of the San Jose area. Whether he originally wanted to be in San Jose proper or across the imaginary line separationg Alameda and Santa Clara counties isn't entirely certain. What is clear to me, however, is that this new facility and the new partnership with Cisco will bring limelight to the A's that no other MLB does or could enjoy.

Anonymous said...

Just Athletics and TB Rays now left looking for park Marlins passed a deal now.Boston and Cubs will holdout longer.And most of Foot ball seems to have a new one but 49ers and a few. The A's been here since 68 never left yet 11 times onver 2million only 17 times over 1 million thats sad.Bad yr 800k 1.4 good 1.7-2.9 or in 2000s 1.7-2.4