tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post8550211220545583456..comments2023-10-16T03:27:54.609-07:00Comments on new A's ballpark: Can San Jose meet the demand?Marine Layerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13515986023439927575noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-50770375977031538632009-09-14T21:04:31.214-07:002009-09-14T21:04:31.214-07:00It's funny how these guys are convinced that t...It's funny how these guys are convinced that the Giants' home city can't wait to become A's fans, yet a city 50 miles south is so hopelessly married to the Giants that no one will watch the A's if they build a stadium there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-30612745361908419862009-09-14T17:30:44.273-07:002009-09-14T17:30:44.273-07:00There are no statistics on SJ as a media market be...There are no statistics on SJ as a media market because it's considered part of the greater Bay Area market (SF-OAK-SJ DMA). SJ has been separated for census purposes.<br /><br />Again, proximity to downtown SF is not a problem. Proximity to the Giants, who are based in downtown SF, is.Marine Layerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13515986023439927575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-49909571706332261552009-09-14T16:11:47.191-07:002009-09-14T16:11:47.191-07:00Proximity to downtown SF is NOT a problem for the ...Proximity to downtown SF is NOT a problem for the A's. Show me anything that can support that. San Francisco has many A's fans, as is shown in the posted statistic. Note that the A's do zero marketing in San Francisco. If the entire Bay Area were set as "shared territory" than you would see the A's increase their fanbase in SF. This would be great for the A's, who would be the White Sox to the giants' Cubs. Except in a good stadium.<br /><br />I know you say "don't worry" about SJ baseball fans, Marine Layer, but I want to see statistics. From what I know about San Jose I wouldn't expect to see high MLB TV ratings coming out of that market. I know these numbers are availble but I can't find them today. I've previously seen them in the context of the MLB-Portland effort, which used them to show that Portland had better TV ratings for MLB than 18 actual major league markets. Something MLB ignored, hence the league-trailing TV ratings for the Nationals in DC.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-23967786028285143322009-09-11T21:36:45.397-07:002009-09-11T21:36:45.397-07:00GoJohn:
I've just learned that I had an overly...GoJohn:<br />I've just learned that I had an overly aggressive spam filter running, and have found your emails. But my spreadsheet porogram (Lotus 1-2-3) won't let me open either of the attachments.<br /><br />Let's assume that there are no unanswered questions about your first chart based on 2005 A's data by county -- I think I understand its strengths and weaknesses.<br /><br />But the colored pie and bar charts need elaboration. They don't show a process, the way the first graph did. They are just pictorial displays of numbers that were generated in a so-far unexplained way. What was your specific method for arriving at those numbers?John Pastiernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-48527152276547498642009-09-11T21:17:03.302-07:002009-09-11T21:17:03.302-07:00This thread started off in a refreshingly factual ...This thread started off in a refreshingly factual and specific way and continued in that vein for quite a while, but now it's turning into a steaming heap of fantasy and nonsense. Are Navigator and Anonymous 4:31 et al. the same person? <br /><br />How was it determined that Oakland is the geographic center of the Bay Area? Does that term have any real meaning, given the complex and fragmented geography of the region? <br /><br />What we really need to Know is not the location of the geographic center, but the center of population. More accurately, the population center weighted by per-capita income and earning power. <br /><br />And even more accurately than that, the question is that, given the fact that the Giants are settled and won't be moving for several decades, what is the best location for the A's in terms of capturing the largest possible individual and corporate market share outside of the Giants' core market area?<br /><br />Hint: It's not their present location, which is too close to the Giants and doesn't have the best local economics. It's somewhere well to the south, and Lew Wolff knew that when he tried (twice!) to locate the A's in Fremont (further from SF, better per-capita income than Oakland). <br /><br />Now that he's been shut out of Fremont, going even further south is the only sensible move other than leaving Northern California. SJ provides the highest county population in the Bay Area, better individual incomes, better corporate sponsorship market, a local government more capable than Oakland or Fremont in terms of being able to make the project happen, and more physical seperation from the thriving competition.John P.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-84171897299382001802009-09-11T21:01:08.165-07:002009-09-11T21:01:08.165-07:00Navigator's inability to think critically lead...Navigator's inability to think critically leads me to believe he's either a troll or a bot. All he does is spew out buzz words like "central location" or "waterfront" and scan every SFGate article about San Jose so he can leave a negative comment. It's quite pathetic.<br /><br />If San Francisco has so many companies willing to spend money on the A's, the Giants would not be forcing the team to stay in Oakland. Neukom and Baer are not comfortable on SF business alone for one team, let alone two. <br /><br />Honestly, if an Oakland stadium is to be dependent upon San Francisco, then Oaklanders should just adopt the Giants. Major league sports are not a charity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-56674222020691974212009-09-11T20:39:18.140-07:002009-09-11T20:39:18.140-07:00There is a very good reason: AT&T Park. Nav, y...There is a very good reason: AT&T Park. Nav, you are sadly, willfully blind to the simple fact that things have changed significantly over the last 20 years.<br /><br />There's no point in debating this further.Marine Layerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13515986023439927575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-42561290476955730832009-09-11T19:12:44.408-07:002009-09-11T19:12:44.408-07:00There's no reason why San Francisco corporatio...There's no reason why San Francisco corporations wouldn't invest in a destination Oakland ballpark featuring an exciting successful team. We need to realize that most of the employees of these "San Francisco" corporations live in the East Bay. It's perfectly logical to have these corporations investing in tickets for a team situated near where their employees reside. As a matter of fact during the Haas championship years, many SF companies did invest in the Oakland A's by purchasing blocks of tickets, luxury boxes, and advertising space.<br /><br />I really don't see who benefits from a ballpark in downtown San Jose.Navigatornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-53081153257851044422009-09-11T17:28:33.521-07:002009-09-11T17:28:33.521-07:00It's funny that Navigator points out SJ compan...It's funny that Navigator points out SJ companies' allegiance to the Giants and then banks on SF companies NOT going to AT&T, but rather this hypothetical ballpark in Oakland's version of Santana Row. <br /><br />Oh, I forgot it looks out onto a slough across from Alameda industrial wasteland, not the wide-open bay. Odd how he chooses the "waterfront" euphemism, isn't it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-76944191704543633042009-09-11T17:10:08.718-07:002009-09-11T17:10:08.718-07:00Nav - I don't think you need to worry about th...Nav - I don't think you need to worry about the South Bay's ability to rally around a team. They've shown time and time again how well they support teams in their backyard. A good number of South Bay folks are even going to A's games now when they weren't a few years ago. Some were Giants fans, some are casual fans, some found Oakland inconvenient. Whatever the case, it's building and gaining momentum.Marine Layerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13515986023439927575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-88596103559754384392009-09-11T16:37:30.638-07:002009-09-11T16:37:30.638-07:00Marinelayer,
The Giants are in a win win situati...Marinelayer, <br /><br />The Giants are in a win win situation precisely because of the self destructive policies of Lew Wolff and A's ownership. Lew Wolff has alienated so many fans in the East Bay, that he's already handing over a large part of the area even while he's still physically located in Oakland.<br /><br />If Wolff does get his coveted ballpark in San Jose, the Giants don't necessarily lose all their fans and corporations in the South Bay while gaining many disgruntled Oakland A's fans who will never support a Lew Wolff ball club in San Jose. <br /><br />Wolff has handled this situation very badly and has alienated many fans in the process. The A's are now second to last in attendance in all of MLB. A Giant fan in San Jose may still be a Giant fan, when, or if, the A's arrive. On the other hand, an Oakland A's fan whose been kicked in the teeth by Wolff and Co, probably wont be too keen to fight his way through traffic just so he can have the pleasure of handing Wolff his hard earned money to see his former hometown team playing in San Jose. <br /><br />Lew Wolff better do a lot better cultivating fans in a small corner of the Bay Area then he did when he had access to the whole enchilada. Lew Wolff needs to convert a whole lot of Giant fans in the South Bay, or else, can you say Pittsburgh Pirates.Navigatornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-35905060858216389962009-09-11T16:13:15.491-07:002009-09-11T16:13:15.491-07:00Nav - It makes a ton of sense if the goal is to at...Nav - It makes a ton of sense if the goal is to attract as many fans as possible within a short distance. Yes, it is surrendering the East and North Bay, yet the Giants are objecting. The status quo is such that the Giants can restrain the A's from the South Bay while siphoning fans from the East and North Bay. That's called having your cake and eating it too.<br /><br />This isn't about Oakland or San Jose. It's about trying to make the smallest two-team market in MLB work for both teams and MLB as well.Marine Layerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13515986023439927575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-3403654747024275022009-09-11T16:04:25.408-07:002009-09-11T16:04:25.408-07:00The problem is the the A's are the ones on the...The problem is the the A's are the ones on the side of the Bay with the largest population. The A's right now are accessible to anyone in the entire Bay Area including San Jose. It just happens that a majority of San Jose residents chose to go and support a San Francisco baseball franchise instead of heading 40 miles north to Oakland. So in effect San Jose and it's corporations have decided to identify with "glamorous" San Francisco, instead of blue collar "gritty" Oakland. This is why the Giants consider San Jose their territory. They get much of their support from the Peninsula and South Bay. The market has already been set. It's unfortunate that Lew Wolff chooses to covet the South Bay instead of cultivating his superior central location to all seven million Bay Area residents who would be predisposed to being Oakland A's fans.<br /><br />A move to San Jose is illogical and does not benefit the Oakland A's historic and potential fanbase in Alameda, San Francisco, Contra Costa, and Marin Counties. The Oakland A's are in an inviable location and yet they deal from a position of meekness willing to hand over at least 3/4 of the Bay Area to the SF Giants. This makes no sense!Navigatornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-28371791170613015032009-09-11T16:03:58.796-07:002009-09-11T16:03:58.796-07:00ML... you can't talk about facts with Navigato...ML... you can't talk about facts with Navigator. You shouldn't try.Jeffreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14086938574207856042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-29738956770778774082009-09-11T15:47:27.832-07:002009-09-11T15:47:27.832-07:00The problem with that conclusion is that AT&T ...The problem with that conclusion is that AT&T Park is just as centrally-located as a possible JLS ballpark. You run into the "Subway franchise" problem, in which non-competing locations end up too close to each other and thus, competing. By keeping the status quo, you're effective limiting the baseball audience to 4 million residents, with everyone else making only occasional trips.<br /><br />It would seem that the best way to capture <i>all</i> of the Bay Area to arrange both franchises so that either is within a reasonably short driving distance or public transit ride away. That's not really possible with an Oakland/SF situation. It works with SF/SJ, or Oakland/SJ. Either of those two would cover 6 million residents.Marine Layerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13515986023439927575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-22050283045070861672009-09-11T15:27:20.609-07:002009-09-11T15:27:20.609-07:00Simple, Oakland is at the geographic center of the...Simple, Oakland is at the geographic center of the Bay Area thereby giving anyone in the Bay Area the opportunity to get to the ballpark with much less hassle than it would take to get to San Jose. <br /><br />Also, a ballpark in Jack London Square puts the A's within ten miles of many San Francisco corporations (with most employees living in the 2.5 million strong East Bay) while retaining the corporations in Oakland, Walnut Creek/Concord, and the Tri Valley. <br /><br />And,a ballpark at Jack London Square provides an element which doesn't exist in San Jose. Jack London Square provides a beautiful waterfront setting which would make the ballpark a destination in itself. There is no such allure for a ballpark in downtown San Jose. No one is going to go to the ballpark because it's situated in downtown San Jose, while many people would go to a ballpark in a beautiful waterfront setting in centrally located and transportation friendly Oakland.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-86653626648093196972009-09-11T15:00:07.411-07:002009-09-11T15:00:07.411-07:00This analysis confirms that moving the A's int...<i>This analysis confirms that moving the A's into downtown Oakland, near a ferry-landing site, would be vastly preferable to sending them down to Diridon.</i><br /><br />Please explain this baffling pronouncement.<br />How is that sentiment confirmed by any analyis in this thread?John P.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-78832640937337302202009-09-11T14:01:53.768-07:002009-09-11T14:01:53.768-07:00This analysis confirms that moving the A's int...This analysis confirms that moving the A's into downtown Oakland, near a ferry-landing site, would be vastly preferable to sending them down to Diridon.<br /><br />How anyone could miss this is shocking.<br /><br />Where is the data on San Jose MLB fans in general? TV ratings? Attendance to Giants and A's? There are a lot of assumptions based on population here but if the region is full of people who don't care for baseball, you're screwed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-46264524110906832472009-09-11T10:30:37.830-07:002009-09-11T10:30:37.830-07:00A few things-
GoJohn... as a father of 3 congrats...A few things-<br /><br />GoJohn... as a father of 3 congrats! And I wasn't trying to disparage your effort. This is awesome and more than I would have done.<br /><br />Second... Neil deMause is posting to the forum! I feel like I am in the virtual presence of royalty or something.<br /><br />Last... this is one of the best discussions I have witnessed on this blog... hooray!Jeffreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14086938574207856042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-51422826046104732662009-09-11T09:40:08.685-07:002009-09-11T09:40:08.685-07:00Neil - The difference, as far as we know at this p...Neil - The difference, as far as we know at this point, is that Wolff is not pursuing seat licenses wherever the ballpark is built, even though the climate could be more hospitable for them in San Jose than Oakland. The Cards could only nickel-and-dime so much thanks to their use of PSL's.<br /><br />The incremental cost of adding 8-10,000 seats would be north of $100 million. That's $8 million per year at 7% for 30 years. Eschew those seats and it's a smaller mortgage.Marine Layerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13515986023439927575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-54108339068753111392009-09-11T09:05:10.223-07:002009-09-11T09:05:10.223-07:00FYI, the ticket-price hikes at new stadiums don...FYI, the ticket-price hikes at new stadiums don't have much correlation with how much the team spent on building them - Cardinals ticket prices only rose modestly in 2006, for example, though New Busch had the second-highest team share of costs after the Giants. They're charging what the market will bear - the only difference is whether the money goes into paying off stadium bonds or into the team owner's pockets.<br /><br />Smaller capacity is going to mean higher ticket prices, but that'd be true in any location, and no matter who paid for it.Neil deMausehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11445574662279996160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-4641014378925288152009-09-11T07:42:22.154-07:002009-09-11T07:42:22.154-07:00Yesterday was the due date, but no baby yet. John ...Yesterday was the due date, but no baby yet. John P., I responded to your email yesterday. I just resent it. If there was another email from you I didn't get it. <br /><br />From your r-squared values it's pretty obvious that your models work better than mine. At this point I would say my final pie chart, which was modeled after the initial graph, should be tossed and remade with your logarithmic model to increase the confidence in the predicted outcome. Quite frankly, I always thought a logarithmic model was a better fit, but i didn't know how to do it (dammit my shift key is on the fritz). I really need to find my statistics book. I lost it in a recent move.gojohn10https://www.blogger.com/profile/03563494204723561825noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-35465976001884100322009-09-10T23:32:24.472-07:002009-09-10T23:32:24.472-07:00The way I remember the presentation, the A's w...The way I remember the presentation, the A's were using the 20-mile rule as a trend based on the other MLB parks. Obviously it's not a hard-and-fast rule, as numerous other factors can come into play. The A's most certainly have sophisticated models predicting sales by ZIP code and demographic.Marine Layerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13515986023439927575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-83034575387553417352009-09-10T23:21:55.797-07:002009-09-10T23:21:55.797-07:00Fan base is one element of revenue for a team--alt...Fan base is one element of revenue for a team--although I would assume a smaller one than corporate sponsorship or tv revenues---I would expect a 32,000 ballpark in downtown SJ would have no problem being sold out on a regular basis--assuming a reasonable product is on the field--no different than the Sharks and their solid support--where SJ begins to separate itself is on the potential for corporate support--no different than the '9ers wanting to be down in the Silly Valley---this is where the corporate dollars are--Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11432525.post-58762808468671524692009-09-10T22:25:49.891-07:002009-09-10T22:25:49.891-07:00Jeffrey wrote:
The maps and charts don't reall...Jeffrey wrote:<br /><i>The maps and charts don't really prove anything.<br /></i><br /><br />I agree with most of what Jeffrey said, but I think there's some value to GoJohn's graph of distance and A's attendance in 2005. He hasn't responded to a recent email, so I expect that he's now busy with his wife's childbirth. <br /><br /><i>If anything I would say the map almost proves the opposite... that currently you have two franchises competing for a nearly identical group of fans and that separating the two teams more evenly splits the market for ticket buyers/stadium advertisers while maintaining the current media market.</i><br /><br />That would be ML's map with the three 20-mile circles, two of which overlap considerably. It makes an important point graphically. I don't know where ML read that MLB thinks a 20-mile radius is where the bulk of fans come from, but if that's the case, I would never have gone to A Giants or A's game, since, living in central San Jose, I'm way outside both circles. <br /><br />Obviously, in the real world, there are concentric circles of various sizes corresponding to zones of higher and lower probability of attendance. Circles are convenient, but also oversimplifications. I think a much better set of zones would be irregular boundaries representing different driving distances to the ballparks, or, better yet, driving times to the ballparks. Say, 30 minutes for high probability, and 60 minutes for moderate probability.<br /><br />BTW, I've done this with graphs rather than maps, plugging in GoJohn's 2005 A's numbers, altering and correcting many of the distances, plotting by time, and trying several different trend lines and curves. This shows that there's a moderate correlation in the graph he posted (R-squared = .45), and a better score of .533 using a logarithmic curve. Using actual attendance instead of % of county population gives much better results (linear = .641; logarithmic = .788).<br />Then I calculated my own distances to various multiple points in each county, which actually lowered the scores a bit, but I think that the data is better even if the fit isn't. Using driving time rather than distance gave a higher R-squared of 0.71. Conclusion -- in 2005, there was a reasonably good correlation between driving time and A's attendance. In each case other than GoJohn's graph, Santa Clara county exceeded the prediction curve figure by quite a bit (between about 85% and 115%), reflecting its high population, and suggesting that it is good territory for the A's. <br /><br /><i> The charts don't seem to really show anything statistically significant about San Jose. Considering the r square conversation above and all.</i><br /><br />GoJohn's first chart shows low-moderate significance, but can be tweaked into something reasonably significant. His second graphic, the color pie chart and bar graph, needs further explanation. It can't be analyzed by regression methods as presented. Right now, I doubt that it has much validity, but maybe when he gets time to rejoin the discussion, he'll surprise us.<br /><br />Sorry that so much of this is so technical, but that's the way analysis works. I wonder how the A's have been doing their own internal market research for Fremont and now Diridon -- lots of numbers crunching, heavy intuition, or a combination of the two.<br />I'm sure that they have better numbers to work with than what we've seen publicly.John P.noreply@blogger.com